Around The Turn in the Democratic Race and the Dreaded Blue Screen of Death

By Timothy J. Carroll on February 11, 2008 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

According to CNN, last 11:59 pm, the delegate count was Hilary Clinton - 1,148 delegates to Barack Obama - 1,121 delegates. This does include pre-pledges of superdelegates, but pretty much everyone is scoring this as a close race (a measly 27 delegates seperating the two?). John McCain awaits. They're coming around the turn, Clinton with the inside, Obama coming strong around the outside. For right now, the delegates are on Clinton's side.

Let's look at the prediction markets and see what they tell us. Intrade: Clinton -- 30.1 (-7.6) to Obama -- 70.2 (+6.3), NewsFutures: Clinton -- 41% to Obama -- 60%, Iowa Electronic Market: Clinton -- 0.294 to Obama -- 0.680. Momentum seems to be on Obama's side

So, looking at it one way, you could say Clinton has the lead and the edge should it come down to superdelegates. But if you favor momentum and deep pockets, then you'd say Obama just took the lead. Then this:

bluescreen

Yeah, I got The Dreaded Blue Screen of Death. Arrrgh!

This just goes to show you: smooth sailing can turn into stormy waters at any moment. That could be taken as a metaphor for Obama, for Clinton, or for the Democrats in general. That could mean George Bush will find a way to stay in power. Anything can happen.

Sorry for cutting short the story today, but my computer is sick. Don't worry, I'm not contagious though. Maybe it was a sign. Maybe not. Depends on how you look at it, I guess.

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