ACC

NCAA Tournament locks:
North Carolina, Duke, Clemson

Great shape with a win:
Miami (FL). Hurricanes sport both a solid RPI and SOS. 8-8 in the ACC is so-so, but big wins over Clemson, Duke and at Mississippi State help.

Need a run:
Virginia Tech, Maryland. Tough losses to end the year for both clubs leaves no room for error. Both teams at minimum need a semifinal appearance or better to get into the Dance.

Sleeper:
Maryland. Team looks like world beaters one minute, then chopped liver the next. Maybe they put it together, who knows.

My prediction:
North Carolina over Duke. Round 3 and the rubber match goes the Tar Heels. Tournament MOP - Wayne Ellington, North Carolina.

Big 12

NCAA Tournament locks:
Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma

Great shape with a win:
Kansas State, Baylor. Both teams should be fine, but wins certainly don't hurt matters.

Need a run:
Texas A&M. Interesting scenario, would face off against Kansas State if they can take care of Iowa State. Can the Aggies survive a loss there? I'm not so sure. RPI and SOS are at best average for a major bubble at-large.

Sleeper:
Baylor. With 6 players averaging 9 points or better, the Bears are a legit threat to make noise. Proved resiliency with a 5 OT win at Texas A&M earlier this season.

My prediction:
Kansas over Texas. Tournament MOP - Mario Chalmers, Kansas.

Big East

NCAA Tournament locks:
Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh

Great shape with a win:
West Virginia. One can make the argument that the Mountaineers are already in, but with the bubble upsets, a loss to 12th seeded Providence could leave them in trouble. Get this one, show up against 4th seeded UConn...and they're fine.

Need a run:
Syracuse, Villanova. Elimination game today at noon. Loser is guaranteed an NIT invitation, winner gets a shot to impress the NCAA Tournament Committee against top seeded Georgetown. Both teams likely need at least 2 wins for a berth.

Sleeper:
Marquette. Guards generally win in March...and Marquette has plenty. If they can get anything from their interior game, they could surprise.

My prediction:
Louisville over Georgetown. The Cardinals get their revenge after losing in DC for the regular season crown at season's end. Tournament MOP - David Padgett, Louisville.

Big Ten

NCAA Tournament locks:
Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State

Great shape with a win:
None

Need a run:
Ohio State. No team in America has helped themselves more than the Buckeyes in the last week. Wins over Purdue and Michigan State gave them life. Face the Spartans again in what is a must-win situation. Can they get it done?

Sleeper:
Michigan State. I know, not a HUGE sleeper, but the bottom half of this league stinks.

My prediction:
Michigan State over Indiana. Spartans finally realize their enormous potential and take the conference crown. Tournament MOP - Raymar Morgan, Michigan State.

Conference USA

Just kidding.

Pac-10

NCAA Tournament locks:
UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC

Great shape with a win:
Arizona State. I'm not sure the Sun Devils are 5th in Pac-10 pecking order, but their draw (USC in the quarters) gives them the most opportunity.

Need a run:
Arizona, Oregon. Arizona has the #1 SOS in the country and has 10 wins against the RPI Top 100. Beating doormat Oregon State is a must, but a win over Stanford and they are locked. Oregon put themselves on the map with a final weekend sweep of the Arizona teams. They also have a nice draw (Washington State in the quarters), would a win there be enough?

Sleeper:
Arizona. Hard to imagine them not making a run to get in. Oregon State might as well be a bye, and they played Stanford tough twice (2 losses by 5 points). Can the Wildcats get it together in time?

My prediction:
UCLA over Washington State. Bracket lends itself to upsets, but in the end, the top dog takes the crown. Tournament MOP - Darren Collison, UCLA.

SEC

NCAA Tournament locks:
Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

Great shape with a win:
Kentucky, Arkansas. Kentucky avoids Tennessee and Vanderbilt...shapes up to match a desperate Mississippi in the quarters. A win there and it's a done deal. Arkansas received a terrible draw, will face Vanderbilt (assuming they handle Auburn) in the quarters. A win there equals get out your dancing shoes.

Need a run:
Florida, Mississippi. Florida has a tough road, which leads to great opportunity. Would need to beat Tennessee then likely Vanderbilt/Arkansas in the semis. Win those, we'll talk. Mississippi is this year's Clemson. Great OOC start, 7-9 SEC. Draw sets up a possible run to the finals, as they avoid the top half. Finals would surely be enough, wouldn't it?

Sleeper:
Mississippi. I expect the SEC to hold mostly to form. However, the Rebels have both the team and draw to make things happen. We'll see if Andy Kennedy's boys can make a run to the Big Dance.

My prediction:
Tennessee over Kentucky. When in doubt, go with the best team. Tournament MOP - Tyler Smith, Tennessee.

Don't forget to check out my ongoing coverage of Conference/NCAA Tournaments. jjj