The Downfall of Cable Television?
Back in early December, Tim wrote about the writers strike and the web's dissolution of television. In it, he mentioned the following:
WebTV exists but, since I don't know anyone who owns it, i can assume that it has failed its purpose so far. The new trend in WebTV sales is Tupperware parties. I don't know if that will work. But knowing that Bill Gates has made it a personal goal of his to integrate TV into the web, I'm sure it will get done soon. So be ready: television is dissolving into the web. Right now it's a mess; it's a tangled takeover.
Well in the short three months since his piece the picture is becoming more and more untangled. And it spells doom for cable providers.
ABC, NBC, CBS and FOX. When it comes to watching TV for entertainments sake these four are arguably the four most viewed networks on television today. All four offer full episodes of their shows online, with limited commercial interruptions, for free. MSNBC and CNBC the two most watched channels for national and international news also offer a wide array of programs and segments online as well. Local news affiliates increasingly offer numerous online video reports accompanying their stories. ESPN has an extensive online video presence. Even all of the recent March Madness basketball games were viewable online for free, including the Championship Game. In short, most credible entertainment and news providers on cable television offer their programs for free online. Many secondary stations, like the food network etc, have yet to offer many full time programs on line but I can’t imagine the trend stopping with just the major stations.

Televisions are obviously at the forefront of the technology movement. Wall mountable, digital, HD, flat screen TV’s are becoming more common as the weeks and months pass. I believe I heard on CNBC recently at work that most predictions concerning the economic stimulus package spending center around an increase in high end television purchases; though at this time I can’t seem to find any online evidence backing that up. At any rate, the great majority of all new TV purchases going forward are going to be of this nature. Sleek, stylish, digital, HD flat screens will pretty soon dominate the American home. But there is one feature to many of these TV’s that mostly goes unspoken, or is considered an extraneous perk, but one that I think may greatly affect cable TV in the future.
Many of these new TV’s can operate as your computer screen as well. It’s an extremely easy adaptation that instantaneously converts your computer display onto a wall mounted HD, crystal clear television screen. Which leads to my question: if most major networks offer their programs online for free, and televisions are becoming increasingly high end and compatible with your computer then why would anyone actually pay for cable television in the future? At least at the rate of $80-$100 as Comcast Cable charges currently.
The only reasons currently that I can think of that assist in keeping cable TV in business are the availability of premium channels like HBO and Showtime and professional sports. They are, to be sure, very legitimate and powerful reasons. They may in fact be the only two things keeping cable companies operational. But what will happen when HBO and Showtime and the rest of the cable premium channels realize that instead of using a middle man they can simply reach their audience directly, online. I’m not quite sure how much cable providers pay the premium channels to offer their programs but I would think they could make more money through direct subscriptions. I would certainly pay HBO $10 or $20 a month for the opportunity to watch their programs online, especially if it meant that I could save $100 a month on a useless cable bill. And as the television industry comes out with computer compatible sets I think most people would agree. It makes business sense for both the consumer and the premium channels.
Professional sports are a much tougher problem to solve. I don’t know enough about the intricacies of the television deals that networks have with the sports leagues. But what I do know is that the cable providers are still the middle man in the equation. And their business function of delivering television channels into your home is slowly being accomplished directly by the stations through their own sites. Isn’t it really only a matter of time as well until the sports contracts allow broadcasts directly online in real time? Look no further then the sparkling brand new NHL.com to see how professional sports leagues are going to use their online presence to provide you with content and videos that were only previously available on television.
This all seems very ominous for the cable television industry. I don’t like to offer financial advice but here are two avenues I would look into. You can take it or leave it. First, sell all the cable providers in the long term. Second, and equally as important, watch for Apple Inc. to announce the development of their own HD, flat screen TV that is compatible with their home computer. Mac PC’s have been gaining market share for a good while now. Many young users are migrating towards their OS and as television programs move online and users begin to demand, with greater frequency, the opportunity to watch said programs on high end screens; it seems only natural that Apple will look to venture towards these new products. Oh and here is a bonus recommendation for you. Look into the parent companies of the premium channels.
I understand, none of this may actually happen, or all of it might. I certainly can’t see into the future. But it sure does make a whole lot of sense if you ask me. Just make sure that when you buy your new TV that it is compatible with your computer. You will be thankful you did when you cancel your cable service and save close to $100 a month. At that rate the TV’s will actually pay for themselves.
UPDATE: For quick and super easy instructions on how to plug your current computer to your TV check this out.


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