A Little Historical Perspective Redux

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On the day following the election Heading East did a little analysis of the Presidential Elections since 1960 using total votes cast. An interesting graph to say the least. See below.

historicalpersepective3_resized

What may be a bit more revealing though, as one of his commentors Joe states, is an analysis of the same data using the % of votes compared to total eligible voters. This should give a more realistic view of the trend line since 1960 since it takes into account population growth.

The data I used for votes cast and % of eligible voters came from wikipedia election pages since 1960 and the wiki page for voter turnout. Feel free to point me towards more accurate information if it is available. Note the data for 2008 is not confirmed and I am using a 60% voter turnout for this year. The real number may be slightly higher or lower.

new vote graph_resized

What is interesting to note is that while the general trend lines follow the same general patterns the graph itself is much more flat in nature. Noxon's '72 election and Reagan's '84 election are still the standard bearers on the Republican side even though in total votes cast it appears that Bush's '04 and McCain's '08 campaigns were much more successful.

On the democratic side of things there has clearly been a slow but steady move towards progressive politics in this country since Carter's failed second term attempt.

What is perhaps most amazing though, is how truly apathetic voters were during the late '80's, '90's and into 2000. In 2004, John Kerry received a higher percentage of the total available vote (27.39%) then any candidate, Republican or Democrat, of the preceeding 4 national elections and still lost.

Will 2004 and 2008 be the beginning of some upward mobility of the trend line or will they prove to be abberations? Will the country continue to show a slow and steady move towards more progressive political opinion? Is the country truly a center - right nation or is that a misconception at this time? We shall see.

My graph is not as nice as Heading East's. Anyone know what program he used?

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E. A. Blair Author Profile Page said:

james, thanks for the query.

i added the info you requested plus two more graphs that may be of interest.

all are in a new post and can be found here.

http://www.memeticians.com/2008/11/even-more-graphs.php

james said:

Actually it might also be interesting to see a graph of total percentage of eligible voters who voted on the same graph... That would give you a sense of the total interest in the various elections over the years.

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This page contains a single entry by E. A. Blair published on November 7, 2008 6:00 AM.

Hypertext Bazaar - 11.06.08 was the previous entry in this blog.

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