Making the Case
Editors note: Timothy J. and Joseph J. have once again switched posting days. Tim is back to Mondays while Joe will be posting on Fridays.

MVPujols
St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols was awarded the National League MVP award this week.
Sure, Albert Pujols's statistics warrant some major attention. He was the runner-up for the National League batting crown with a .357 average while pounding 37 home runs and driving in 116 RBIs. His slugging percentage was .653 while carrying an on-base percentage of .462, combining for an astounding OPS of 1.115. He struck out only 54 times in 633 plate appearances and had a career high 104 walks.
Wow. It's pretty clear that Albert Pujols was the National League's best player in 2008.
But was he the most valuable player? The Baseball Writers' Association of America apparently think so, but I don't.
Defining Valuable
Many baseball writers, or stat geeks as I like to call them, will argue that Howard does not deserve the MVP award based on his low average and 199 strikeouts. His .251 average was a career low while his massive amount of strikeouts tied his career high (which used to be the MLB record, by the way). Despite this, however, he is still my MVP.
To win baseball games, you have to score runs. Plain and simple. Pitching is an incredible asset, but if you don't score, great pitching will get you nowhere. And according to Baseball Prospectus, the authority on stat geekdom, there is no correlation between strikeouts and runs scored.
When we're exposed to baseball growing up, when we play the game, putting the ball in play is important because the defenses are so bad that if you can just make contact and put the ball in play there's a good chance you're going to get on base.
At the professional level, defenses are so good that the difference between putting the ball in play and not doing it for routine plays is just not that great.You have to be focused on runs. How you get there doesn't actually matter. The shape of an offense doesn't actually matter. It's just a matter of how many runs. You see this throughout baseball. Take two different guys who go 10 for 50 over the course of two weeks. The guy who strikes out 25 times is going to look worse than the guy who grounds to second 25 times.
In other words, there is no significant difference between a ground ball to shortstop and a strikeout. And as a stat geek might say, the numbers don't lie.
Producing When it Matters
With keeping the above information in mind, Ryan Howard produced more runs than anyone in Major League Baseball with his 48 home runs and 146 RBIs compared to Pujols's 37 homeruns and 116 RBIs. He also scored 105 runs, an unusually high amount for a clean-up hitter, as compared to Pujols's 100.
Despite his low batting average, Ryan Howard hit .320 with runners in scoring position, a .069 point jump. Albert Pujols had a .339 with runners in scoring position, a .018 point drop. While Pujols's average with RISP was .019 higher than Howard's, the drop in Pujols's average shows that he underperforms with RISP. Ryan Howard's massive jump in average with RISP, however, shows that he steps up in the clutch.
Even more significant is the two teams' late-season playoff runs. On September 1st, the Phillies were carrying a 75-63 record and were 2 games behind the New York Mets for first place in the NL East, and 5.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card race. The St. Louis Cardinals were 74-64, 11 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central and 6.5 games behind the Brewers.
Enter Ryan Howard.
The NL Player of the Month for September when on a torrid stretch run, hitting .352 with 11 home runs and 32 RBIs while carrying an .852 slugging percentage, tops in the NL for all four categories. The Phillies finished the final month of the season with a record of 17-7 to end up 92-70, first in the NL East. The Cardinals, behind the leadership of Albert Pujols, finished 14-12, ending up 86-76 and in fourth place, 11.5 games behind the Cubs and 4 games behind the floundering Milwaukee Brewers.
Without Ryan Howard, the Phillies would have never won the division and quite possibly would have not won the Wild Card, either. Without Albert Pujols, the Cardinals, well, probably would have still finished fourth.
The Irony
When Ryan Howard won the 2006 NL MVP award, Albert Pujols felt snubbed, and said the following:
I see it this way: Someone who doesn't take his team to the playoffs doesn't deserve to win the MVP.
He later retracted the statement, but what he said speaks volumes.
The difference between 2006 and 2008 is that the Phillies, while missing the playoffs, actually finished with a better record than the Cardinals and were in the Wild Card hunt until the final weekend of the season. The 2006 Cardinals won an inferior division and played well enough to take the crown. The 2008 Cardinals, however, were never in the thick of things.
I wonder if he'll give the award back, being as though he doesn't feel that he deserves it.
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joe - regarding this statement
Despite his low batting average, Ryan Howard hit .320 with runners in scoring position, a .069 point jump. Albert Pujols had a .339 with runners in scoring position, a .018 point drop. While Pujols's average with RISP was .019 higher than Howard's, the drop in Pujols's average shows that he underperforms with RISP. Ryan Howard's massive jump in average with RISP, however, shows that he steps up in the clutch.
i cant help but disagree... after doing some simple math the difference between the two grows wider... and in favor of pujols.
howard hit .251 and .320 with RISP - that equates to hitting a measly .230 in his other at bats which was a substantial 71% of the time - .230 is HORRIBLE
pujols hit .357 and .339 with RISP - that equates to hitting a whopping .370 in his other at bats which in has case was 78% of the time.
so for over 70% of the time pujols hit 140 points better then howard and even though his RISP numbers came down from his regular numbers he was still 19 points higher.
and futhermore if runs wins games then look no further then runs created... pujols created 160 to howards 113 and the difference is even more noticabel when looking at runs created per game where pujols holds the advantage this year 11.8 - 6.4 ... thats 84% more runs created per game... a massive difference.
in 2006 you could make a much closer argument between the two... pujols created 151 runs or 10.6 per game compared to howards 169 or 11 per game.
using those terms you could argue howard most certainly deserved his '06 award but i think its pretty obvious that pujols' stats acorss the board are more dominant then howards.
agree to disagree.